煤炭的真实成本 煤炭工业出版社

The T rue Cost of Coal Simon Lim Natalie Behring John Novis c 2007 17450 GDP 7.1% CPI 23.1% GDP 0.07% 2007 940 0 40% 2007 2008 9 16 1 1 2 2007 25.2 8.2% 25.8 7.9% 2007 69.5% 42 1 2006 3587 GDP 1.7% GDP 4.15% 2007 53% 2007 17% 16% 5% 70% 85% NOX 67% 80% 34% 30% 36 40% 70 95% 2007 ---2008 3 2005 3306 5938 5 6 , 1.1 4 44% 8% 48% 4 1.1 5 2 6 21 2005 153.3 2.2 1500 389 6000 1000 1% 1100 12 75% 85% 60% TSP 70% 2005 6 11 2004 7 10 m 0.1 0.5 m 20% 0.1 m SO 2 NO 2 300 0.1% 1 0.5% 20 30 160 g/ m3 4~6 210~107 0 g/m3 25 g/m3 5% 4700 g/m 3 2 8 96 71% 40% 1 4 5 4000 22 40% 2004 2005 6 11 2007 , 9 25% 10% 2006 1600 42 26 7000 3000 1 0.01 0.29 0.2 2006 12 3 70 500 1000 2000 1 245 SO2NOX CO2CO 60% 1000 0.038 0.32mg/kg 20 90 302.9 213.8 89.07 2000 7 2004 10 1200 200 20 60 g/100mL 5 6mg /kg 0.2 0.3 mg/kg 2030 --10% --5% 11 1/6 20% 5000 4300 4 2000 12 Stern Review Garnaut Climate Change Review 2006 10 30 GDP 5% GDP 20% GDP 1% 2100 4.8% GDP 5.4% 7.8% 2.1 2.1 13 / 6.1 1.0 3.7 4.9 1.1 22.1 0.2 8.5 5.4 9.8 1.0 0.8 0.2 69.47 44.8 25.7 2.7 4.1 12.7 1.2 0.5 91.7 161.17 4.67 14 2.2 5.96% / 69.47 91.7 161.17 / % % 34.74 45.85 80.59 7.7 10.17 17.87 2.57 3.59 5.96 15 3 16 2002 ---2007 48% 2007 53% 3.1 6 5 5 30 70 5 5 --2.5 0 --4.74 0 C. Dahl, 1993 30% 2001---2005 2007 2006 2007 % % % % % % 2000 134796 127002 59193 16004 25370 8020 108587 18415 43.91 11.87 18.82 5.95 80.56 3.08 2001 142811 132202 64561 16582 25794 8740 115677 16525 45.21 11.61 18.06 6.12 81.00 6.53 2002 155093 145699 73284 18231 27000 9700 128215 17484 47.25 11.75 17.41 6.25 82.67 10.83 2003 174129 163742 85092 21362 29048 9875 145377 18365 48.87 12.27 16.68 5.67 83.49 13.38 2004 195212 186310 98692 25500 32310 10808 167310 19000 50.56 13.06 16.55 5.54 85.71 15.09 2005 215000 205635 108700 32900 35304 11731 188635 17000 51.28 15.52 16.66 5.53 88.99 12.74 2006 238000 220900 116500 35000 36800 13400 201700 16500 52.74 15.84 16.66 6.076 91.31 6.92 2007 252300 258000 130630 42349 40495 13362 226836 16000 52.99 17.18 16.43 5.42 92.02 12.46 17 50% 2002 2006 10% 48% 4.8% 3.1 5% 2006 2007 5% 2007 3.1 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 ( ) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2005 18 194 31 15.98% 87 6 6.9% 31 2 6% 2 3 1996 10 1 2003 1 10 42986 18.41 1 4 9690 2907 22.54% 5 6 13759 32% 7 10 19538 45.45% 17290 3.2 2000---2006 18516 31064 26.91% 40.26% 10 29 214 30 42 36% 58% 2005 37% 80% 70 17 10 7 30 2000 6.096 2001 5.07 2002 4.64 2003 4.17 2004 3.1 2005 2.836 2006 2.041 19 50% 5000 2500 42755.4 16308.8 609.15 5732.2 14.53 2005 689 500 2005 1 18 689 2006 2 27 20 2004 2 10 2004 10 15 5 35 3.3 25% 30% 2000---2006 17.5% 21% 19.25% 3.5% 2007 3 B 2004 15 5 8 6 15 8 15 15 5 8 5 5 5 15 8 8 15 15 10.25 2005 15 5 8 15 15 8 35 25 5 8 15 5 30 8 30 15 15 15.6 2006 15 5 15 30 15 8 35 25 5 8 15 5 30 8 30 15 15 17 10 4% 10 4% / 21 15.75% 0.33 5.25% 200 700 / 1500 / 600 / 75000 / 75000 / 2% 1500 / 1987 754061.2 67.3% 507483.2 7612247.8 1500 / 114.2 2005 10.2 11.2 / 48% 2.5% 0.8% royalty 3.4 6 10 / 8 / 2002 1 62.64 54.64 / 19.65% 6.55% 2007 3 2004 9 22 2006 8 100 100 / 10 2005 1 10 14 / 7 7 2005 7 1.55% 0.5% 35 60 3000 2% 716901 20 51.7 2006 2.041 25 1.05 2006 8 30 2 4 / 1% 500 / 1000 / 2 4 / 6 10 / 2005 1.3% 2.2% 23 20 2007 9.5 2007 6 21 24 4 111 3 3.5 17.73% / 65 71.03 14.53 11.2 54.64 --7 209.4 % % 15.27 15.75 1.61 2.5 19.65 --1.55 53.23 5.09 5.25 0.54 0.8 6.55 --0.5 17.73 25 4 26 4.1 55% 60% 2006 13.82 58% , , , , , 1991 3 1 0.33 / 1995---2006 1700 2006 220 32.54% 7 2008